̱ ѹݵ
2003 3 20 . ̶ũ 4 9 ٱ״ٵó ձ ϸ鼭 Ұ 20 Ǵ . ļ 翩δ иġ ϴ ٱ״ٵ忡 ģ ִ Ȳ Ǿ, ̷ν ̱ ߵ Ϻ Ǿ ִ. ô ̱ 3 , NATO ٸٱ ϵ , ߵ, ѹݵ ߽ Ͼ ̾µ, ð 걹 ,ȭ ̹ `90뿡 , ߵ ٿ ذ Ұ, ̹ ̶ũ ࡱ ϳ ǻ ŵν ѹݵ̴.
̱ ũ , Ȳ ϱ Ȳ, ̳İ ̱ д ߿ Ұ ̴. 츮μ ٵ .̰ ô븦 ° ־ ̱ ħҸ ϳ Ű ε, νϰ ־ ̴ ̴.
νġ(perception)κ ۵ȴ. νϸ , ν ̿ ̱ ¼ ٸ ȴ. 翬 ȭ Ѵ. ϴ . ϱ ¼, Ȯδ ſ ־ Ȳ ؾ Ǵ ̹Ƿ, ̶ũ 츮 Ȳ ־ å ´ ȴ. ־ Ȳ Ȯ 10,000 1̶ ϴ װ ȭǾ Ρ(entire) Ǵ ̸, װ ·ο 濡 ̸ ֱ ̴.
ô ̱
2 ̱ ҷð 걹鿡 (Containment) (Deterrence) Դµ,`1990 鼭 ҷü Բ ü رǸ鼭 Ұ, 9.11 ϱ ̸. ô ̱ Ⱥǥ(National Security Objectives), ̱ ͱ, 汹 ҷ κ ȣϰ, ̱ Ͱ Ȯ(ֿڿ, , /ַ) ߱ϴ ͡μ, (Defense Strategy) Ģ ù°, (Defensive Orientation), ̰ ̱ ɼ ϴ ϴ ̾.
ħڴ ݽð, , ݹ ڽ ִ ν, ڿ ʿ ִ Ҹ ִµ ұϰ ħڿ Ϻ 纸ϸ鼭 ̱ ⡱ ߴ. °, (Deterrence) ؼ ߴ. źξ(Deterrence through Denial), ϱ ħ ĽŰ , ȿ ǹѴٰ ߴ. Ȯ(Threat of Escalation), Ȯ ħ ߵ ɴ ս ϴ ȿ 븮 ̾. °, (Threat of Retaliation), ħ 信 Ҵ ̴ ̾ δ ¡(ó)(Deterrence through Punishment) ߴ.
̱ , 9.11 뺯ȭ
ٸ , (Threat of Compensation), ϵ ִ ϴµ, Ѹ ؼ ô ̱ ؼ ſ ȣ̰ 纸ٰ̾ ִ. , ̱ ũ ȭϱ , ܰ迡 Ϻ Ǵ κе ־ Ȧ ٽ ̴.
9.11 ̱ 䰡 ݴϴ ̾. 1941 12 Ϻ ر ָ ϱ װ Ͽ̿ ƴϾ. , 9.11 ̱ε鿡 û , 갨, Ȱμ Ⱥǥ ٽ ߰, ̸ ϰ ̾.
9.11 νõƮ Ҹ ̱ Ⱥå, ⡱ ݡ(Pre-emtive Attack) ȸ ߴ. ݱ ȭå ƴ϶ ö ߽ϴ å ߽ ξ. Ư¡ , ȭ(Peace through Power) ܱå ħϱ Ǽ Ѵ. ̷ ܱ ̱߽ å . ؼϰ 踦 , ̱ Ϳ ų ذ 쿡 ̸ , Żϰ ̱ Ű DZ Ѵ.
ü ʷ, νô б (2002.6.1.) , ̱ ̻ 뷮 ٸ κ Ÿؾ Ѵ. տ Ÿ ٸٸ ̴ ʹ ð ɸ ̴. ¼δ £ ¸ . õߴµ, ̷ Ȳν , ̴. µ, ų ε μ, 뷮 Ͽ ս ƴ ո , ϴ ̼ ̱ ݱ ǹϴٰ ϰ ̴.
ο 信 ̱ κμ Ⱥ(Department of Homeland) Ϻλɺ(Northern Command) â߰, , ݹ̽, ݴ뿡 ұϰ ܷ п ̶ũ ħ Ͽ, ᱹ ̶ũ ùε鿡 ļ Ȳ ̶ũ (Operation Iraqi Freedom) ̸ µ ߴ. ̻籹 þ, ߱, ̶ ݴ븦 ̱ 忡¡ ִ ̾. ٱ״ٵ忡 ļ ϰ 缼 Ѱܳ, 30 Ⱓ ﴭ Ҵ ùε ȯȣϰ Ǿ.
ʱ, ݴ븦 ѡҹ̰ ¡ νÿ ̱ ҹ ħڷ Ƽ, ̱ ð ̹ ũ ȭϰ ־.
ݵ
2 ̱ ձ Բ ȭ μ Դµ, ٷ 鼭 ֵǴ 3 ߿ ġ ϰ ǰ, ̻籹 þ, ߱, ڱ ì ַμ ҸǾ, Ű ư Ǿٰ ̱ , ̶ũ ݴ ִ¡ 帱 ̾, ᱹ ڱ ̶ũ ϰ ̴.
ȸΡ¼䡱(NPR.Nuclear Posture Reivew -2002.1), 7(.,̶ũ,̶,,ø,) ݴ ϰ, 3ǡ Ȳ ߴ.
(1)ٰݿ ߵ ִ ǥ ϴ . (2) ȭ. ݿ ϴ . (3)ŹⰡ ߵ ϴ ̴.
ü ϸ, ̱ Ź, 뱹 ݱ Ҽٰ(No First Strike) ϰ, ٺ þ, ߱ Ͽ ٱ ̶ũ,̶,.ø.ѱ ݴ ԽŰ Ͽ Ѵ. ٵ ߿ , 9.11Ŀ ̱ ߴ° ؾ ϴ ̴.
ν Ͽ ð
1994 ̱ ѿ ν, ٰ , ̻/ 밡 / , װ Ǵ 帣 ϰ ߰, ϳ ߿ Ǽ 1994 Ͼ ̴. ᱹ 2002 ͼ ٺ (?) Ͽ, ˾Ҵ ٰ ӵǾ µ ̱ Ư ġ ʰ ִ. Ư ̱ Ȳϰ ϵ ̷Ͽ, ΰ 鼭 ѱο 迡 ū ߰, ſ ѱ ݹ̺ Ȯ ̴. 23 ܶٱⰡ ° ̴.
ߴɰ νô (2001.3.7.) ̰ ΰǾ. ߴ, ϰ ȸ, ع湮 Ż Ǿ ϰ ִٰ ѵ , νô Ͽ ð Ǿ.
(1)Ѱ Ϻ (complete verification) 䱸Ǹ,
(2) (transparency)
(3) ڿ ȸ̴.(I do have some skepticism)
ν Ͽ ν ſ ̴. ̶ũ ϱ ̳ ݵ ̱ δ, Ѱ ȭ ذѴٴ Ģ ϰ , ɼ ʰ ִٴ Ư ؾ .
ѹ̰ ȭ
. ¿!߰, ѱ Ÿ ݹ кҽ ӿ ̱ Ⱑ ¿ ѵ ӵν, ̱ ѱ ̱ ٰ 鼭, ѱ ȥ Ǿٰ ϰ Ǿ. ѹ̱ ΰö Ѵٴ ǿ ſ Ű ΰϰ ϰ ִ. ѱ Ѿ, ̱ Ǵ ̳?̴.
߿ ذ ̱ΰ ѱο ΰ ۿ ¿ ִ. ѱ Ͼڸ ̽¸ ؼ ѱ ƾƴ ɰ Ѱ. ̱ ͱ, 汹 ڵ ι̾, Ʈ£ ָ 濡 óذ ̱ ɿ ѱ ĺ ν ̱ װ 밡 ̰ ߴ, ѱȭ , ѱ Ŀ, ε Ŀ ڵ ̰ Ǵ ū ̵ , ̰ ѱ ٴȭ, ȭ Ǿ.
1968 ڴ ظ Ưδ밡 ûʹ ձ , Ǫȣ dz, EC-121Ⱑ ߵǴ ӵǴ ڱ å нƮ 1969 7 ǥǾ 7 öߴ. ѱδ ѹ̱ ö ط ݴ ̱ ڱ ȹ ö ߴ. ȸ ܹ.а ǿ ߱ÿ ܹ, , ̱ηκ ѹ̱ ö 뺸 ϴ. 亯 ӵǴ ̹ ̱ ֵϰ ִ 翡 ü, , ӵǰ ־.
̱ ܵ
̱籹 ̰, 츮 ΰ ε 並 û ڼ , ʹ Ȳ 츮 ־. ϼԴ ȣ 鼭 Ⱦϴ ī Ϲ ѹ̱ Ϻ ö ̱ο ȸ ݴ ݷ ݴ뿡 ´ڶ߷ ö ߴϰ Ҵ. ö ϸ ٰ ̶ ȿߴ. 1980뿡 ̱ ؼ ȹ . ڴ ÿ 尨 귶.
̶ ȷտ Ȳ 屳 ̱屺 ̶ ߴ ̱ ̶ ȴ. ȷ ΰ ϰ ʴ . ᱹ ȷ ȣ̴ ̽ ڵ鿡 ġ ۵Ǹ鼭 ̶ ٴȭ ʳ ߰, ״̴.
Ű Ʈ ȸ 3 , 8 뱺 İϰ ִ ѱΰ ˸ . ѱ ȸ 籹 ƴϴ . ĸ Ÿڸ Ұ 2° Ǵ ѱ ߴ ηη ߹㵵 ϵ ΰ ͱؾ ߴ.
1986 ־ ̱ΰ ̱ ڰ Ȯϰ ̱ ͱ ܵ Ʈ, ϸ鼭 Ҹ Ƶ, ظ Ծ. ̱ ȥڼ ̾.
1994 ̱ ܿ ѿ 縦 غϸ鼭 ѱ ̱ε Ұɱ ȴٴ ־(1994 6)̷ ġ ѱοԴ 뺸 ˷.
̸ ɰ ϴ þ, ߱, Ⱥ ̻籹 ݴ븦 ϰ ̱ 2003 320 ̶ũħ ߴ. ̱ Ͱ ġ ʴ Ǵ ǹ Ͽ ̴. ε ̱ ڱ Ϳ յǴ ܵε ൿ ִٴ ̴. 10 Ʈ ؼ ƹ , į 뷮л(ųʵ), û 뷮л, ڼҺ л 縦 ϳ ߰ ° ε ̶ Ʒ ؿ ӹ ̴. ̰ ̴ּ.
̱, ϸ ͱ/汹 Բ ൿ Ϸ , װ ġ ̱ܵε ൿ 簡 ְ ִ. ̱ 츮 İԸ ̶ ϰ ؼ и .
5 ̱ԡ 衱 䱸ϴ ̱ ѱ ٷ ΰ? 1980 ̹ ѱ Ѻ ϰ Ǿ , ̱ ѹ̱,κ ħ ƴ϶ κ ħ ɼ ؼ ϴ ҡ ϰ ִ νϰ ־.
̱ ൿ ѱ ݿ
鼭 ̱ þ, ߱ 踦 ߰, ° ϴܶǰ, Ŀ þ, ߱ 谡 Ǹ鼭 ѱ ξ µ, ̹ ̶ũ ؼ ణ ȭ . 踦 ȹ ϴ ȿ Ǵܵȴ. ſ ̱ ѱ ǻ縦 ϴ ô̶ , ̱ ǻ ϴµ ѱ Ա ġⰡ ȴ. ̱ ڱ ȭ ϴµ ѱ ̿ ̴.
ٹ ó ϳμ ̱ ߱ ӻͰ ִ. 赵 ߱ ϰ , װ Ϻ ذ ȴ. ߱ ̱ ̱ ߱ ̱ ذ ġϴ ؿ ̹Ƿ ۿ .
ΰ , ̻ ̱ װ͵ ̱ ʾұ η 9.11 . νô 3 ࡱ ϳ ߰, ָ鼭 Ⱦơȭ ϰڴٴ ƿ ȴ.
Ǵ ̱ ѹݵ
νδ Ͽ (1)ٰ ߴϰ ٽü , (2)̻ ߴ, (3)緡 Ĺ濡 ġ ٱ 䱸ϰ ִµ, ָ鼭 ٴ ڼ ϰ ִ. ٿ ѡ, -?(Yes or No)̴. ̸ ǡ(compensation) dzʰ ̴.
νδ, ѿ ε 䱸ϸ鼭 ̴. ̰ ȿ ̱ ̴. ̶ũ ȿ ϳ̴. 鼭 ȭ ٹ ذѴٴ ǻ縦 õ ̴. , ̰ (Hard Kill) 쿡 ִ. Ѹ ؼ ̱ ڼ , ̴. ̷ ̱ 䱸 شٴ ǹϴ ̱ ̱ 䱸 Ƶ帱 , ϰ (deal) Ǽ ǹѴ. ѹ̱ ġ ( ̵) ̱ ִ Ǫ ġ ϳ ִ.
̱ ѿ ġ Ȳ ִ. ̶ũ ִ. ϰ ü, ȭ, αDZ, .뷮 /ⱹμ ̴. ٸ , ̶ũ ̽, ƶ ġ, ް ִ. ġδ þƿ ߱ ް ´. ̶ũ 2 걹μ ̱ ִ. ڿ̴. ̶ũ ַ 縷μ , dz ȯ ѻ ߰ ָ ̷ 尨Ȱ ⵿δ , ȭ ߿뿡 .
ݸ鿡 尨, ȭ ȿ, ⵿ ´. ձ Ưδ ԵǾ , ļ µ ־, ִ ѷ ݱ . ̱ ¼ ڸ ̶ũ ùε ﰢ ļ μ ļ , ʹ ָ еǾ ùε ݱ ɴ . ̶ũ (battle field) ̶ũ 䳻 Ǿ ־ ̶ũ ܿ ظ Դ ֺ . ̱ 쿡 ѵ ʰ ѹݵ ȭ ȴ. ݰݴɷ ̱ ڹؿ , 500 Ŀ ̻ϵ Ϻΰ ѱ ƿ 뷮ظ .
ѹݵ ֵ
ѻ ذ ʰ ̱ Ҹ . Ưδ ̳ ݱ Ȱ Ұϱ þƳ ߱ Ͽ ó ֵ ִ. ġδ, ִ Ŀ ̻ û ȭ ξ ȭ Ű ̴. ̶ũ ʱ ̶ũ Ŀ ̻ ݰ ܷ ̹ߴ ̱ ̷ ġ ߴ . ܰ ´ ̶ũ · ̴.
ེ ̶ũ ̱ ڰ 䱸 ϴ ڼ ϰ ִµ, ̶ũ 鼭 ̱ ܵ ȭ ξ ̱ Ա ı ְ, ̱ ܵ ұ ̱ 䱸 ڰ ȭ ̶ ϴ. ֵ ̱ ִ ̻ ̱ ħ а ȴ. ̱ ̶ũ ¿ Ѱ ο ʰ 翬ϴ. Ⱓ Ѽ ʿϴϱ. ̱, ð ̰, ٹ ¼ ο .
1992 ̱ 湮 Ƴ Ϳ ѹݵ ϵ ̱ ϰ ֵ Ͽ ͡ 䱸ϸ鼭, Ŀ ̱ ѹݵ ֵ ̸ ̱ ͵ ϰڴٰ ǰ ѹ ־ٰ Ѵ. , 㱸 δ. Ŀ ֵϴ ̱ ݰ ٸ ѿ ߸ ڴٴ ̰, ̱ ͡ ̱ ڴٴ ɻ꿡 Ұϴ. 츮 ణ ܲҸ η ؾ Ѵ.
ѹ̰ ߱ ؾ
츮 ߱ ؾ Ѵ. ѱֵ ߱ ġγ ξ ̶ ؾ Ѵ. ̱ ڹȭ̶ ؼ ߱ 輳 ϴٴ ϰ ؽѼ ѱֵ Ͽ źΰ ʵ ߱ ܱ ľ Ѵ. ̰ ̱ Ͽ ؾ Ѵ.
̹ . ձ ̶ũ ħ Ͽ ־ ϴ. ļΰ ҷ, ࡱ ̴ֵ. þ, ߱, չ ǻ ϰ ̱ ڱ ൿ ִٴ , ݴϴ ƹ ǵ Ұ, ٵ ʰ뱹 縦 ū ̴. ʱ ļ ſ ż , ƶ ݹ̺ Ȯ ̱ ſ Ȥ , Ұ 3 ձ , ϰ ̴ ̶ũ ν ļ ߸ ǥ μ ļ ̾ٴ ־.
Ƹ 1 ϼ ϰ Ͼ ȭ ڽŵ ̸ Դ ũū ƴ ̴.
ȭ Ρ ̾
̱ и. ڼ ̴İ Ǫ ̰, ñ ̱ ǥ ι° ࡱ ſ ִ. ѱδ ջ ѹ̰ ̸, ȭ 밡 ΰ- ؾ Ѵ. ϰ ѱ ȭ ϱ⸦ Ѵٸ ϡ Ǵ ̸, ٵ ߿ 鼭 йް ִ 2õ ̴ ص ΰ? ̰ ƴϴ. ǻ縦 ƾ ̴. и 츮 ȭ ƴ϶ ̴. ƴ ο ǰ ȭ 谡 ̷ ù ۵Ǵ ̴.
ܱ ε(Ԥ), ο ʾƵ ġ ǰų, ġ ° ȭ Ű ϰ Ǵ ¡ (Lippmann Gap)̶ ߴµ, ̳ 츮 .
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